Morning Setup: Cautious Bull, Mixed Signals
At 9:45 AM ET, Stoptions published 12 new setups across a CAUTIOUS BULL regime with Fear & Greed at 40. The top-ranked entry was TLN at a score of 110/100 with 75% win probability, followed by ROKU and two JBL and AFRM setups, all scoring 99–110 and carrying 75% win odds. The lower-confidence tier—HAE, CRWV, HOOD, OC, and HIMS—ranged from 47% to 52% win probability and scored 67–84. Entry prices spanned $31.6 (HIMS) to $442.69 (TLN target). See the Morning Brief for the full context.
Today's Closes: 7 Winners, 7 Losers
Of 14 positions closed today, 7 were wins and 7 were losses. The standouts: TLN (options) returned 150% via target premium exit, HOOD (options) returned 134.7% via target premium, and ASML (options) also hit 150%. Stock-based wins included HOOD at 9.2%, MRNA at 9.8%, TNL at 8.6%, and MS at 8.1%. On the loss side, ALV (options) fell 62% and CMC (options) fell 41.2%, both stopped on premium. JBL (stocks) lost 4.6%, OC (stocks) lost 3.8%, LEA lost 3.1%, VLY lost 1.3%, and HR lost 1.0%—all exited via stop. The day's win/loss split was even, but the magnitude of the option wins substantially outweighed the stock losses. Check live results for position-by-position detail.
Running Record: 558 Closed, 42.7% Win Rate
Over the trailing 365 days, Stoptions has closed 558 trades with a 42.7% win rate (expired contracts counted as losses) and a 2.0 profit factor. The average return per trade stands at 13.8%, with capped outliers. Winners average 67.2% and losers average −23.7%. Today's mixed close—strong option wins offset by routine stock stops—is consistent with the system's long-term profile: a sub-50% hit rate sustained by asymmetric payoff sizing and disciplined stop discipline.
Verify everything
Every setup above was published at 9:45 AM ET — before the market opened — and logged to the same database that powers our live results. Expired contracts are booked as full losses and outlier wins are capped in our averages, so the published stats are a floor, not a highlight reel. Want tomorrow's setups in your inbox before the bell? That's the Morning Brief.
*Stoptions.ai is an algorithmic decision-support tool, not an investment adviser. Nothing here is financial advice. Options involve substantial risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.*