Morning Setup: 12 New Picks in Contrarian Bull Mode
Stoptions published 12 setups at 9:45 AM ET into a CONTRARIAN BULL regime with Fear & Greed at 25. The slate split into two tiers: five lower-confidence plays (HWM, MIDD, ARW, LPX, HXL with scores 79–106 and win probabilities 49–52%) and seven high-conviction setups (DLTR, GLW, HWM, TER, MIDD, MKSI, MU all scoring 108–120 with win probabilities 45–99%). The highest-conviction trio—DLTR, GLW, and TER—each carried 99% win probability and defined risk via stop and target. HWM appeared twice on the board: once at score 106 with entry $270, again at score 120 with the same entry but tighter risk management (stop $260.29, target $291.6). Check the Morning Brief for full context on regime and positioning.
Today's Closes: 9 Winners, 12 Losers
The day produced a mixed outcome. Nine positions closed as wins: AFRM and ABBV (stocks, +8% and +8.1%), RBA (stock, +8.3%), and five options trades that delivered outsized returns—AXTA (+172.7%), GH (+145.4%), FLG (+140%), LPX (+139.4%), and HXL (+125%). All five options winners exited via target premium.
Twelve positions closed as losses. Stock stops dominated: VICR (−8.9%), WDC (−8.1% and −9.7% on two separate entries), ENTG (−6.4%), HLT (−2.7%), CMI (−4.6%), HWM (−4%), ARW (−3.1%), STX (−7%), and ANET (−6%). Two options trades stopped out: ARWR (−42.1%) and HXL (−50.7%). All losses exited via stop or stop-premium triggers. Live results show the full ledger.
Running Record: 661 Closed Trades, 3.2 Profit Factor
Over the trailing 365 days, the algorithm has closed 661 trades with a 43.6% win rate (expired contracts counted as losses). The profit factor stands at 3.2, with an average return per trade of 29.3% (outliers capped at ±150%). Average winner: +100.1%. Average loser: −23.1%. Today's mixed session—nine wins offset by twelve losses, with options outperforming stocks on both sides—fits within the longer-term distribution. The contrarian bull regime and low fear reading set the backdrop; execution remains a function of entry timing and volatility.
Verify everything
Every setup above was published at 9:45 AM ET — before the market opened — and logged to the same database that powers our live results. Expired contracts are booked as full losses and outlier wins are capped in our averages, so the published stats are a floor, not a highlight reel. Want tomorrow's setups in your inbox before the bell? That's the Morning Brief.
*Stoptions.ai is an algorithmic decision-support tool, not an investment adviser. Nothing here is financial advice. Options involve substantial risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.*