Morning Setup: 12 New Picks in a Cautious Market
Stoptions published 12 setups at 9:45 AM ET on July 2 as SPY held a CAUTIOUS BULL regime with Fear & Greed at 30. The roster ranged from PB (score 105/100, win prob 99%) and HQY (97/100, 52%) on the lower-confidence end, to a cluster of six high-conviction plays: GLW, IBKR, OSK, RDDT, CHRW, and PB again—all scoring 110/100 with 88% win probability. CGNX rounded out the slate at 99/100 with 49% probability. Entry prices spanned $71.31 (CGNX) to $224 (GLW). Check the Morning Brief for the full context.
Execution: A Brutal Day of Stops and Exits
Of 28 positions closed today, 27 were losses and 1 was a win. The sole winner was CCEP (options), which returned 156.8% via TARGET_PREMIUM after entering on July 1. The losses tell a grimmer story. Options positions took the heaviest hits: ASML dropped 78.8%, SPXC fell 61.7%, CIFR slid 78.1%, ARW lost 59.6%, VICR fell 55.8%, and CHRW gave back 48.8%—all exited via STOP_PREMIUM. Stock positions fared somewhat better but still uniformly negative. Same-day exits on today's fresh picks were particularly sharp: GLW (−9.1%), AMAT (−7.5%), CGNX (−5.8%), IBKR (−3.6%), GIS (−2.7%), and PB (−2.4%) all hit stops within hours of publication. Older positions from late June also closed: TER (−10.9%), MU (−11%), WDC (−11.1%), LRCX (−9.6%), and ALGM (−8.7%). See live results for the complete ledger.
Running Record: 734 Trades, 43.6% Win Rate
Over the trailing 365 days, the algorithm has closed 734 trades with a 43.6% win rate, a 3.05 profit factor, and an average return of 26.9% per trade (capped outliers). Average winners land at +93.9% and average losers at −22.9%. Today's session—dominated by stop-outs and premium decay—represents a sharp reversal from that long-term profile. The single win (CCEP) was outsized enough to matter, but 27 losses in one day, including several on same-day entries, underscores the volatility inherent in options scanning, especially in lower-conviction regimes.
Verify everything
Every setup above was published at 9:45 AM ET — before the market opened — and logged to the same database that powers our live results. Expired contracts are booked as full losses and outlier wins are capped in our averages, so the published stats are a floor, not a highlight reel. Want tomorrow's setups in your inbox before the bell? That's the Morning Brief.
*Stoptions.ai is an algorithmic decision-support tool, not an investment adviser. Nothing here is financial advice. Options involve substantial risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.*